weather

Extreme heat continues to impact parts of Western Europe, driven by a high-pressure system trapping dry air from northern Africa. This persistent heat has led to increased air pollution, elevated wildfire risk, and severe drought in some regions. Notably, both nightly minimum and afternoon maximum temperature records for June were broken in several localities. The Mediterranean Sea’s surface temperatures remain exceptionally high, reinforcing heat in nearby land areas. Conversely, South America experienced unusual winter cold in late June, with record-breaking temperatures across Argentina, Chile, and Paraguay^[1].

In the United States, a series of weather alerts are active. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin from noon until 9 p.m., with “feels-like” temperatures expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees Fahrenheit. A heat advisory covers surrounding areas for the same period. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued in counties across South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, with threats of property damage and large hail. Flood warnings are also active for regions in South Dakota^[2]^[6]. The threat of tornadoes cannot be ruled out in affected areas. The heat is expected to continue into Monday, followed by potential heavy rainfall through Tuesday before temperatures moderate^[6].

In central and southern Europe, the weather pattern is rapidly changing. After a historic heatwave—temperatures topped 44 °C in Serbia and Greece, with a new Turkish national record of over 50 °C—an upper-level cold wave is now moving over the Alps into the Mediterranean. This will bring a marked temperature drop for central Europe, the Balkans, and parts of the Mediterranean, effectively ending the episode of extreme heat. Areas like Milan, Italy, and Belgrade, Serbia, are forecast to experience below-average temperatures for the start of August^[5].

Europe and the Balkans are under a heightened severe weather risk due to this transition. Supercell thunderstorms, tornadoes, very large hail (5 cm or larger), and damaging winds are forecast for Sunday and Monday. A “HIGH+MDT” risk has been placed for the Mediterranean and the Balkans, with the most robust threat developing over these regions. The synoptic setup involves a deep upper-level trough and a blocking high, supporting widespread severe weather including convective outbreaks^[7].

In Southeast Asia, the subseasonal outlook for early to mid-July shows drier-than-normal conditions over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent, while wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over northern Mainland Southeast Asia. Temperatures are forecast to be warmer than usual across much of the Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. There’s currently no discernible Madden-Julian Oscillation activity, suggesting stability in major weather drivers for the period^[3].

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